Incumbent John Duarte (R) and challenger Adam Gray (D) are making their last pitch to voters in the final days before the election. District 13 is one of six pivotal California swing districts to decide whether Republicans will retain their razor-thin majority in the House on Nov. 5.
In District 13, Duarte is pulling slightly ahead of Gray, but it is still a toss up, according to Cook Political Report. Duarte has a 55% chance of winning, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill predicted on Monday. This is a rematch for Gray and Duarte. Gray lost to Duarte in 2022 by 564 votes – the second closest U.S. House matchup in the United States that year.
“This is ground zero for control of Congress,” said Christian Grose, a professor of Political Science and Public Policy at USC.
Cook rates four of the California swing districts – CA 22, CA-27, CA-41 and CA-45 – as toss ups, with only District 47 leaning Democratic. District 13 is the sixth swing district which Cook considers a Republican toss-up.
Redistricting before the 2022 midterm election made some of these swing districts more competitive, but majorities are also shifting as people relocate for jobs or cheaper housing, Grose said.
The Central Valley district accounts for over 770,000 residents, 65% of whom are Hispanic, according to Census Reporter. The district is primarily an agricultural area that encompasses all of Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.
With a majority of voting age Latinos in San Joaquin Valley, a group that has historically leaned Democratic in California, it was assumed that Democrats would have an advantage – except, the Central Valley has a historically low voter turnout among the Latino population. Therefore, older, conservative voters have the advantage, according to the Sacramento Bee.
Voting turnout will be a deciding factor in the election and it depends on whether Democrats or Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote, Grose said.
“The Kamala effect is noticeable,” said Lise Talbott, the Central Valley Democratic Club Chair, a group that supports local Democratic candidates. “The positive enthusiasm is stronger than I have seen in the past as opposed to the must-defeat-Trump energy we had in 2020.”
District 13 had elected Democratic representatives since 1974, but it was always one of California’s highest concentrations of conservative Democrats, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. Duarte ended the streak in 2022 when the former representative, Barbara Lee, moved to represent District 12. She had represented District 13 since 2012.
This is only the second election since redistricting. District 13 is purple with a slight Democratic majority in voting registration, but because the Democrats do not mobilize to the polls, turnout is historically evenly split.
Inside Elections Deputy Editor Jacob Rubashkin considers Duarte the underdog this cycle. With Gray working to flip the seat Democratic, the Central Valley Democratic Club started their final push to get Democrats to the polls through canvassing and text blasts over the weekend before election day.
Canvassers distributed thousands of slate cards, which are mailers or voting guides. Older volunteers drove canvassers to various neighborhoods and dropped off supplies for those out on the trail.
For months, a group of over 40 volunteers have met at a local Starbucks to write postcards. The CVDC phone banked for months and plan to phone bank on election day until 8 p.m. when the polls close. They also sent text blasts to over 20,000 people reminding recipients to vote.
Gray is using the momentum of the last election and his platform is more closely align with what voters are worried about, Talbott said.
Gray and his team are out in the community talking to voters, canvassing and working with volunteers to shore up the final votes on the eve of the election, Gray told Sunday Morning Matters.
“There is a constant frustration with Sacramento that pervades California politics,” Rubashkin said. “Adam Gray is a creature of Sacramento. It was easy to portray him as a negative caricature of a disliked state government.”
Gray’s experience as an assemblyman for 10 years helped push Duarte to win because of growing dissatisfaction with political institutions in 2022.
Duarte platformed in 2022 on being a political outsider. He capitalized on his career as a Central Valley farmer, appealing to locals by tackling affordable housing, water accessibility, education and public safety. He is running a similar platform in 2024.
When Cook Political Report’s U.S. House of Representatives Editor, Erin Covey, compares District 13 to the other California swing districts, Duarte is the most vulnerable. As a freshman, he is less well known than other California House Republicans.
Gray is using that to his advantage by addressing water accessibility, education, public safety and healthcare.
The primary issues in the national election, especially reproductive rights, are the same concerns in District 13. Women who have never voted before are now motivated to vote because they want to protect their reproductive rights, Talbott said.
At the debate between Gray and Duarte on Oct. 31, neither candidate clarified their views on abortion rights. Duarte identifies as pro-choice, but said if the opportunity presented itself to codify Roe v. Wade in Congress, he would have to do some research. Gray claims to be pro-choice, but did not clarify whether he would support abortion limits.
Both Gray and Duarte opposed Proposition 32, which would raise minimum wage to $18 an hour.
Gray challenged the federal government to improve infrastructure spending, while Duarte blamed state regulations for rising housing costs.
Gray also does not support a government mandate forcing buyers to purchase electric vehicles, but he would fund a high-speed rail. Duarte agrees that electric vehicle purchases should be decided by buyers, except he would veto a high-speed rail.
It took weeks to call the District 13 winners in 2022, and the same is expected in all of the swing districts this year, Covey said.
